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A good part of the explanation of the decline of fertility since 1960 can be viewed as a kind of demographic backlash to the baby boom. Those women who had their children early in marriage during the preceding decade or so achieved their family-size goals sooner than they would have otherwise and consequently contributed fewer births to the sixties than they might have. The process is not unlike an accordion which was compressed at the beginning and stretched out subsequently. In addition, their younger sisters who have been marrying during this past decade are simply having fewer births at least during their early years of marriage. Women aged 20-24 in 1969 had 40 percent fewer children than women in that age group in 1960. Perhaps these births are being postponed and will occur later.
Whether "later" will mean "fewer" will have to be seen. As of 1965 there was little hard evidence that the young women of the sixties wanted and intended to have fewer children than their older sisters who married after the war and during the fifties. The average number of children expected by married women has not varied much between 1955 and 1965. But our guess is that having fewer births in the early years of childbearing will mean a total of fewer later and that today's younger married couples will end up with smaller families.
It should be emphasized however that there is yet no firm basis for predicting a return to the low of 2.3 children recorded by the women now in their late fifties and early sixties. Women 25 to 29 years old in January of 1969 had an average of 1.9 children compared with an average of 2.1 children for women this age in 1965 and 2.0 in 1960. As the professional staff of the Census Bureau indicates, the "decline since 1965 in the cumulative fertility of women 25 to 29 is of special interest because women of that age are far enough along in their childbearing to conclude that women currently of this age most likely will reach age 45 or the end of childbearing with fewer children than the women who were 35-39 years old in 1969." They go on to forecast a probable completed fertility of 2.8 for this cohort.
There is some evidence that families smaller than this might be preferred if we can trust the extent of reported unwanted fertility. That a group of women did achieve a family size close to replacement (an average of about 2.1 children is required to insure the same population in the next generation) several decades ago when contraceptive techniques were less sophisticated than even today's unsatisfactory variety is compelling testimony to the fact that lower fertility is attainable even without a revolution in contraceptive technology. The experience of many western European countries also testifies to this capability.
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